Tennis · WTA Finals · 13/11, 22:30
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Elina Svitolina
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Elina Svitolina
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Elina Svitolina
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
6–1
Elina Svitolina
(7 last)
- 29 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 01 May2-0 13-8W
- 16 Aug2-0 13-7W
- 13 May2-1 17-13W
- 06 Jun2-0 12-8W
- 25 Sept1-2 12-16L
- 25 Sept2-1 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1538 · Elina Svitolina 1520
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 6–1 Elina Svitolina (7).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Elina Svitolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.1 | 11.6-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 6 – 1 Elina Svitolina (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 6–1 Elina Svitolina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/26 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/05/25 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/05/24 WTA Rome | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 06/06/23 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/09/20 WTA Strasbourg | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/09/18 WTA Wuhan | 2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/11 | Karolina Muchova WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Ann Li WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 04/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Renata Zarazua WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Karolina Muchova WTA Finals · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 09/11 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/10 | Hanyu Guo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Ann Li WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 27/09 | Linda Noskova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina?
Our model gives 58% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.