Tennis · WTA Finals · 12/11, 21:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
5-5 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
2–3
Coco Gauff
(5 last)
- 22 Aug0-2 4-12L
- 11 Feb2-0 13-7W
- 10 Oct0-2 5-12L
- 19 Apr2-1 16-16W
- 23 Jan1-2 15-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1464 · Coco Gauff 1569
| Marta Kostyuk | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1464 vs 1569).
- Coco Gauff is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 2–3 Coco Gauff (5).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.9/match).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.2 | 12.6-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 66% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 64.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 2 – 3 Coco Gauff (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 2–3 Coco Gauff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/02/25 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/10/24 WTA Wuhan | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/04/24 WTA Stuttgart | 2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 23/01/24 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Jessica Pegula WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/11 | Linda Noskova WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Maria Sakkari WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
Coco Gauff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Linda Noskova WTA Finals · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/11 | Jessica Pegula WTA Finals · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 07/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Xinran Sun WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 11/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Iva Jovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 69% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.