Tennis · WTA Finals · 12/11, 22:30
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Linda Noskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Linda Noskova
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
5-5 (W-L)
Linda Noskova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
1–3
Linda Noskova
(4 last)
- 21 Jun1-2 13-16L
- 04 Oct1-2 15-14L
- 27 Jun2-1 19-13W
- 19 Feb0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1529 · Linda Noskova 1597
| Jessica Pegula | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Linda Noskova (rating 1529 vs 1597).
- Linda Noskova dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 53% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 1–3 Linda Noskova (4).
- Note: Linda Noskova makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.7 | 12.7-9 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Jessica Pegula 1 – 3 Linda Noskova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 1–3 Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 WTA Berlin | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/10/25 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 27/06/25 WTA Bad Homburg | 2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 19/02/25 WTA Dubai | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/11 | Coco Gauff WTA Finals · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Coco Gauff WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/11 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/10 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/09 | Cristina Bucsa Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Katie Boulter Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova?
Our model gives 54% to Linda Noskova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.