Tennis · WTA Finals WD · 10/11, 00:00
Prediction: Dabrowski/Stefani vs Mertens/Zhang
Team pages: Dabrowski/Stefani · Mertens/Zhang
Prediction summary
Winner
Dabrowski/Stefani
Mertens/Zhang
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dabrowski/Stefani
8-2 (W-L)
Mertens/Zhang
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dabrowski/Stefani 1628 · Mertens/Zhang 1499
| Dabrowski/Stefani | Mertens/Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dabrowski/Stefani (rating 1628 vs 1499).
- Dabrowski/Stefani is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Dabrowski/Stefani | Mertens/Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-9.2 | 12.6-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.5
Over 19.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 27% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dabrowski/Stefani
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Errani/Paolini WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Hunter/Joint WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 30/10 | Chan/Kato WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 28/10 | Ayukawa/Webley-Smith WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Hunter/Siniakova WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/10 | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/10 | Neel/Olmos WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/10 | Eikeri/Gleason WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Siniakova/Zhang WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Mertens/Shnaider WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Mertens/Zhang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Hsieh/Wang Wimbledon WD · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Begu/Cristian Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06 | Eikeri/Gleason WTA Berlin WD · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Berlin WD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Guo/Mladenovic French Open WD · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Fossa Huergo/Korpatsch French Open WD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Parks/Pigossi French Open WD · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/05 | Hsieh/Wang WTA Rome WD · Clay |
1-2 | 18-23 | L |
| 25/04 | Andreeva/Shnaider WTA Madrid WD · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/04 | McNally/Pegula WTA Madrid WD · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dabrowski/Stefani vs Mertens/Zhang?
Our model gives 66% to Dabrowski/Stefani, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.