Tennis · WTA Finals WD · 09/11, 00:00
Prediction: Siniakova/Townsend vs Errani/Paolini
Team pages: Siniakova/Townsend · Errani/Paolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Siniakova/Townsend
Errani/Paolini
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Siniakova/Townsend
8-2 (W-L)
Errani/Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Siniakova/Townsend
2–0
Errani/Paolini
(2 last)
- 29 Mar2-0 13-7W
- 12 Mar2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Siniakova/Townsend 1617 · Errani/Paolini 1561
| Siniakova/Townsend | Errani/Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siniakova/Townsend (rating 1617 vs 1561).
- Head-to-head: Siniakova/Townsend 2–0 Errani/Paolini (2).
Statistics
| Siniakova/Townsend | Errani/Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-10 | 13.4-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 0 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.6
Over 19.5: 68% · 2.00
Under 19.5: 32% · 1.72
H2H · Siniakova/Townsend 2 – 0 Errani/Paolini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Siniakova/Townsend 2–0 Errani/Paolini
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 WTA Miami WD | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/03/26 WTA Indian Wells WD | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Siniakova/Townsend
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Krueger/Montgomery US Open WD · Hard |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 09/09 | Mertens/Shnaider US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Hunter/Krawczyk US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/09 | Wang/Xu US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Brantmeier/Broadus US Open WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Jovic/McNally WTA Cincinnati WD · Hard |
1-2 | 19-21 | L |
| 17/08 | Jurak Schreiber/Wu WTA Cincinnati WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Guo/Mladenovic Wimbledon WD · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Muhammad/Stollar Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Errani/Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/10 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/10 | Muhammad/Zhang WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Danilina/Jiang WTA Tokyo WD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10 | Bucsa/Melichar-Martinez WTA Ningbo WD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Hunter/Siniakova WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
1-2 | 22-24 | L |
| 16/10 | Danilina/Zhang WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Fernandez/Gibson WTA Wuhan WD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Dabrowski/Stefani WTA Beijing WD · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Siniakova/Townsend vs Errani/Paolini?
Our model gives 68% to Siniakova/Townsend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.