Tennis · WTA Finals · 09/11, 21:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Karolina Muchova
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Karolina Muchova
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Karolina Muchova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
2–3
Karolina Muchova
(5 last)
- 10 Jan2-0 12-7W
- 04 Oct1-2 16-15L
- 19 Aug1-2 12-18L
- 08 Jun1-2 18-20L
- 26 Oct2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1562 · Karolina Muchova 1536
| Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 40% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 2–3 Karolina Muchova (5).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.6 | 11.7-10.7 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 40% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 2 – 3 Karolina Muchova (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 2–3 Karolina Muchova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 WTA Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/10/24 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 19/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 08/06/23 French Open Women | 1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 26/10/19 WTA Zhuhai | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Ann Li WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 04/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Renata Zarazua WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Karolina Muchova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Caty McNally WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 08/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Naomi Osaka WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/10 | Katie Boulter WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Anhelina Kalinina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Katie Boulter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova?
Our model gives 56% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.