Tennis · WTA Finals · 08/11, 22:30
Prediction: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Coco Gauff · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Coco Gauff
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Coco Gauff
8-2 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Coco Gauff
5–4
Jessica Pegula
(9 last)
- 24 Aug2-0 12-6W
- 07 Jul2-1 16-12W
- 02 Nov1-2 12-18L
- 12 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 03 Nov2-0 12-5W
- 22 Jun0-2 11-14L
- 04 Nov0-2 3-12L
- 11 Aug1-2 14-18L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coco Gauff 1581 · Jessica Pegula 1559
| Coco Gauff | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Coco Gauff 5–4 Jessica Pegula (9).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Coco Gauff | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9.6 | 12.4-11.3 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 62.7% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Coco Gauff 5 – 4 Jessica Pegula (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coco Gauff 5–4 Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/26 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07/26 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/11/25 WTA Finals | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/11/24 WTA Finals | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06/24 WTA Berlin | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/11/23 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/08/23 WTA Montreal | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coco Gauff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Xinran Sun WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 11/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Iva Jovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 54% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.