Tennis · W15 Monastir · 04/11, 11:00
Prediction: Lya Fernandez vs Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals
Team pages: Lya Fernandez · Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals
Prediction summary
Winner
Lya Fernandez
Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals
Estimated games
19.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lya Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lya Fernandez 1515 · Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals 1451
| Lya Fernandez | Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lya Fernandez (rating 1515 vs 1451).
- Lya Fernandez is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Lya Fernandez makes many double faults (8.2/match).
Statistics
| Lya Fernandez | Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 0.4-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-10 | 5.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 51.6% | 45.4% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lya Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Carola Cavelli W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/08 | Charlotte Van Zonneveld W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-8 | L |
| 29/07 | Andrea Obradovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/05 | Anna Kubareva W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Karla Popovic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 21/05 | Andre Lukosiute W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Manon Favier W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 13/05 | Laia Petretic W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 0-8 | L |
| 09/05 | Yasmine Mansouri W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/05 | Iveta Dapkute W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Milla Sequeira W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Chenting Zhu W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Nuria Sarganella Verdu W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-11 | W |
| 19/10 | Isabel Pascual Montalvo W15 Villena · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Gabriela M Vancea W35 Baza |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W50 Yecla |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kate Sharabura W15 Torello · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Zoziya Kardava W15 Logrono |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Denislava Glushkova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Aya El Aouni W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lya Fernandez vs Ariadna Garcia Patron Canals?
Our model gives 71% to Lya Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.