Tennis · W15 Monastir · 12/11, 10:00
Prediction: Matilde Mariani vs Mariia Masiianskaia
Team pages: Matilde Mariani · Mariia Masiianskaia
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Mariani
Mariia Masiianskaia
Estimated games
19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Mariani
5-5 (W-L)
Mariia Masiianskaia
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matilde Mariani
1–0
Mariia Masiianskaia
(1 last)
- 16 Sept2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Mariani 1545 · Mariia Masiianskaia 1428
| Matilde Mariani | Mariia Masiianskaia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Mariani (rating 1545 vs 1428).
- Matilde Mariani is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matilde Mariani 1–0 Mariia Masiianskaia (1).
- Note: Matilde Mariani makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Matilde Mariani | Mariia Masiianskaia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.4 | 7.3-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.2% | 57.5% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 58.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.5
H2H · Matilde Mariani 1 – 0 Mariia Masiianskaia (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matilde Mariani 1–0 Mariia Masiianskaia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/26 W15 Monastir | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Mariani
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Carla Giambelli W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/10 | Despina Papamichail W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Maria Toma W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Chiara Fornasieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Polina Berezina W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mariia Lazarenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Yekaterina Dmitrichenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Lan Mi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Miroslava Medvedeva W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
Mariia Masiianskaia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Julie Myatovic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Ela Nala Milic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Anna Petkovic W15 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Estella Jaeger W15 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Irem Kurt W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Matilde Mariani W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Yasmine Mansouri W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Valeria Garnevska W35 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 7-9 | L |
| 24/08 | Xinran Sun W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Ulyana Hrabavets W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Mariani vs Mariia Masiianskaia?
Our model gives 73% to Matilde Mariani, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.