Tennis · WTA Hong Kong · 31/10, 04:30
Prediction: Emerson Jones vs Heather Watson
Team pages: Emerson Jones · Heather Watson
Prediction summary
Winner
Emerson Jones
Heather Watson
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Emerson Jones
7-3 (W-L)
Heather Watson
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Emerson Jones
1–0
Heather Watson
(1 last)
- 17 Oct2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emerson Jones 1520 · Heather Watson 1477
| Emerson Jones | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emerson Jones (rating 1520 vs 1477).
- Head-to-head: Emerson Jones 1–0 Heather Watson (1).
- Note: Heather Watson makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Emerson Jones | Heather Watson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10 | 11.5-14 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 6.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.6% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 47.5% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Emerson Jones 1 – 0 Heather Watson (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emerson Jones 1–0 Heather Watson
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/26 WTA Osaka | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emerson Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Hong Yi Cody Wong WTA Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/10 | Ann Li WTA Osaka · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 17/10 | Heather Watson WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/10 | Zhuoxuan Bai WTA Suzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Mai Hontama WTA Suzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Alexandra Shubladze WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Chenting Zhu WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Haruka Kaji WTA Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Heather Watson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Alycia Parks WTA Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 17/10 | Emerson Jones WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Angela Fita Boluda US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 24/08 | Claire Liu US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emerson Jones vs Heather Watson?
Our model gives 64% to Emerson Jones, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.