Tennis · M25 Tamworth · 28/10, 01:30
Prediction: Pavle Marinkov vs Blake Ellis
Team pages: Pavle Marinkov · Blake Ellis
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavle Marinkov
Blake Ellis
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Pavle Marinkov
1-9 (W-L)
Blake Ellis
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavle Marinkov
1–1
Blake Ellis
(2 last)
- 25 Nov2-1 14-13W
- 30 Jan0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavle Marinkov 1429 · Blake Ellis 1534
| Pavle Marinkov | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blake Ellis (rating 1429 vs 1534).
- Blake Ellis dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Blake Ellis is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Pavle Marinkov makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Pavle Marinkov | Blake Ellis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 22% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-11.7 | 13-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 22.3% | 46.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Pavle Marinkov 1 – 1 Blake Ellis (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavle Marinkov 1–1 Blake Ellis
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/25 Challenger Playford | 2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 30/01/25 Challenger Brisbane | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavle Marinkov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Philip Sekulic M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Ronit Karki Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Justin Boulais Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Blake Ellis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Herman Hoeyeraal M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Zane Stevens M25 Tamworth |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Tamworth |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/09 | Arjun Mehrotra M25 Darwin |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 17/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Benjamin O'Connell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavle Marinkov vs Blake Ellis?
Our model gives 61% to Blake Ellis, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.