Tennis · M25 Tamworth · 28/10, 00:00
Prediction: Tai Leonard Sach vs Naoki Nakagawa
Team pages: Tai Leonard Sach · Naoki Nakagawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Tai Leonard Sach
Naoki Nakagawa
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Tai Leonard Sach
6-4 (W-L)
Naoki Nakagawa
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tai Leonard Sach 1482 · Naoki Nakagawa 1605
| Tai Leonard Sach | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoki Nakagawa (rating 1482 vs 1605).
- Naoki Nakagawa is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tai Leonard Sach | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-11 | 11.9-8.3 |
| Aces | 3 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 81.1% |
| Break % | 49% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tai Leonard Sach
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Casey Hoole M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Darcy Nicholls M25 Darwin |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Jeremy Beale M25 Darwin |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/09 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Thanh Minh Truong Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Mukund Sasikumar M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 21/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Chen Hui Ho M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Natsuki Yamamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Yua Taka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Cooper Woestendick M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tai Leonard Sach vs Naoki Nakagawa?
Our model gives 67% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.