Tennis · W75 Toronto · 28/10, 15:00
Prediction: Ariana Arseneault vs Sara Saito
Team pages: Ariana Arseneault · Sara Saito
Prediction summary
Winner
Ariana Arseneault
Sara Saito
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Ariana Arseneault
7-3 (W-L)
Sara Saito
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ariana Arseneault
1–0
Sara Saito
(1 last)
- 24 Oct2-1 16-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ariana Arseneault 1567 · Sara Saito 1510
| Ariana Arseneault | Sara Saito | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Arseneault (rating 1567 vs 1510).
- Head-to-head: Ariana Arseneault 1–0 Sara Saito (1).
- Note: Sara Saito makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Ariana Arseneault | Sara Saito | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-8.1 | 11.2-12.2 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.7% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 56.2% | 51.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Ariana Arseneault 1 – 0 Sara Saito (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana Arseneault 1–0 Sara Saito
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/26 W75 Saguenay | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ariana Arseneault
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Yuki Naito W75 Saguenay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Sara Saito W75 Saguenay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/10 | Katherine Sebov W75 Saguenay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/10 | Raphaelle Lacasse W75 Saguenay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 17/10 | Mimi Xu W50 Quebec City |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Ayana Akli W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Madison Sieg W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Justina Mikulskyte W50 Quebec City |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/09 | Angelina Voloshchuk WTA Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Catarina Gomes WTA Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Sara Saito
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Ariana Arseneault W75 Saguenay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 23/10 | Linea Bajraliu W75 Saguenay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 21/10 | Clervie Ngounoue W75 Saguenay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/10 | Kajsa Rinaldo Persson W50 Quebec City |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/10 | Jamilah Snells W50 Quebec City |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Clemence Mercier W50 Quebec City |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Chenting Zhu WTA Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | En Shuo Liang WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Xinxin Yao W50 Guiyang |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ariana Arseneault vs Sara Saito?
Our model gives 56% to Ariana Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.