Tennis · W35 Sydney · 27/10, 01:30
Prediction: Natsuho Arakawa vs Lucia Gale
Team pages: Natsuho Arakawa · Lucia Gale
Prediction summary
Winner
Natsuho Arakawa
Lucia Gale
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Natsuho Arakawa
6-4 (W-L)
Lucia Gale
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Natsuho Arakawa
1–0
Lucia Gale
(1 last)
- 20 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natsuho Arakawa 1447 · Lucia Gale 1522
| Natsuho Arakawa | Lucia Gale | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Gale (rating 1447 vs 1522).
- Lucia Gale is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Natsuho Arakawa 1–0 Lucia Gale (1).
- Note: Natsuho Arakawa makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Natsuho Arakawa | Lucia Gale | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-10.8 | 9.8-7.9 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 46.3% | 74.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Natsuho Arakawa 1 – 0 Lucia Gale (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Natsuho Arakawa 1–0 Lucia Gale
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/26 W35 Sydney | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natsuho Arakawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Naiktha Bains W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Lucia Gale W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Nagi Hanatani W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Rira Kosaka W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 15/09 | Remika Ohashi W35 Kyoto |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 02/09 | Clarissa Blomqvist W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Eloise Newberry W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Amy Stevens W15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Ya-Yi Yang W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Julie Adele Bedard W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Lucia Gale
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Natsuho Arakawa W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Naomi McKenzie W35 Wagga Wagga |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 27/08 | Belle Thompson UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Bridget Mihulka UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Sara Mickoska UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Christina Dodaj UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Kaylah McPhee UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Ranxi Yu UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Arabelle Mancini UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Juliet Santitto UTR Pro Gold Coast Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natsuho Arakawa vs Lucia Gale?
Our model gives 61% to Natsuho Arakawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.