Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Talia Gibson
Team pages: Daria Kasatkina · Talia Gibson
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Talia Gibson
Estimated games
21.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
4-6 (W-L)
Talia Gibson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1489 · Talia Gibson 1518
| Daria Kasatkina | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.7 | 9.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 57.6% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 46% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 51% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Yexin Ma WTA Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/10 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Talia Gibson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Osaka · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Sinja Kraus WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/10 | Harriet Dart WTA Osaka · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Maria Sakkari WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Viktoria Morvayova WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/09 | Fiona Ferro WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Donna Vekic US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Talia Gibson?
Our model gives 51% to Daria Kasatkina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.