Tennis · Challenger Cali · 23/10, 19:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Miguel Tobon
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Miguel Tobon
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Miguel Tobon
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1525 · Miguel Tobon 1530
| Valerio Aboian | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Miguel Tobon makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-10.9 | 11.4-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 39% | 41.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Matias Soto Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Julian Cundom Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 21/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 10/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Koray Kirci Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Miguel Tobon?
Our model gives 57% to Miguel Tobon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.