Prediction: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima
Team pages: Flavio Cobolli · Brandon Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Flavio Cobolli
Brandon Nakashima
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Flavio Cobolli
2-8 (W-L)
Brandon Nakashima
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Flavio Cobolli
0–1
Brandon Nakashima
(1 last)
- 27 Apr0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flavio Cobolli 1491 · Brandon Nakashima 1532
| Flavio Cobolli | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1491 vs 1532).
- Head-to-head: Flavio Cobolli 0–1 Brandon Nakashima (1).
Statistics
| Flavio Cobolli | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.6 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-15.7 | 13.9-12.7 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 39.4% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.2
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.90
H2H · Flavio Cobolli 0 – 1 Brandon Nakashima (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flavio Cobolli 0–1 Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/25 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
| 22/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Brandon Nakashima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Jakub Mensik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima?
Our model gives 59% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.