Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Van Assche
1–0
Lorenzo Musetti
(1 last)
- 17 Jan3-2 27-19W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1524 · Lorenzo Musetti 1544
| Luca Van Assche | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Luca Van Assche 1–0 Lorenzo Musetti (1).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.8 | 12.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 33% | 54.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1
Over 21.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Luca Van Assche 1 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Van Assche 1–0 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/24 Australian Open | 3-2 | 27-19 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Clement Tabur ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/08 | Cameron Norrie US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 61% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.