Prediction: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Corentin Moutet · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Corentin Moutet
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
24.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Corentin Moutet
5-5 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Corentin Moutet
0–2
Tommy Paul
(2 last)
- 18 Feb1-2 13-16L
- 31 Jul0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Corentin Moutet 1495 · Tommy Paul 1566
| Corentin Moutet | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1495 vs 1566).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 46.1% break avg.
- Tommy Paul is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Corentin Moutet 0–2 Tommy Paul (2).
Statistics
| Corentin Moutet | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-13.1 | 15.5-12.8 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 46.4% | 46.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.4
Over 21.5: 73% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 27% · 1.83
H2H · Corentin Moutet 0 – 2 Tommy Paul (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Corentin Moutet 0–2 Tommy Paul
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 ATP Delray Beach | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 31/07/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Corentin Moutet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Felix Balshaw ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 05/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/07 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 22/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 69% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.