Tennis · ATP Almaty · 23/10, 16:30
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
4-6 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Bublik
1–2
Karen Khachanov
(3 last)
- 05 Jun1-2 12-15L
- 21 Jun2-1 17-16W
- 23 Aug0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1501 · Karen Khachanov 1547
| Alexander Bublik | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karen Khachanov (rating 1501 vs 1547).
- Alexander Bublik dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 45.9% break avg.
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 8 aces and 45.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Bublik 1–2 Karen Khachanov (3).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-13.4 | 14.5-12.7 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 79.8% |
| Break % | 45.9% | 45.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.8
Over 23.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 37% · 1.80
H2H · Alexander Bublik 1 – 2 Karen Khachanov (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Bublik 1–2 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/26 Bonmont Tennis Masters | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 21/06/25 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/08/20 ATP New York | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 11/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Rafael Jodar Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Tommy Paul US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 21-27 | L |
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 52% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.