Tennis · ATP Almaty · 23/10, 08:30
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · James Duckworth
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
James Duckworth
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
7-3 (W-L)
James Duckworth
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1–0
James Duckworth
(1 last)
- 03 Aug2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1611 · James Duckworth 1515
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1611 vs 1515).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 1–0 James Duckworth (1).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-10.4 | 12.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.5% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 29.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.4
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.90
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1 – 0 James Duckworth (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1–0 James Duckworth
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/18 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
James Duckworth
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 03/09 | Yibing Wu US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Arnaldi US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 28/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth?
Our model gives 70% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.