Tennis · ATP Almaty · 23/10, 11:30
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Terence Atmane
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Terence Atmane
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
8-2 (W-L)
Terence Atmane
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
1–0
Terence Atmane
(1 last)
- 17 Jun2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1626 · Terence Atmane 1535
| Daniil Medvedev | Terence Atmane | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1626 vs 1535).
- Terence Atmane dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 55.6% break avg.
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 1–0 Terence Atmane (1).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Terence Atmane | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-8.5 | 14.5-13.1 |
| Aces | 11.6 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 80.6% | 79.4% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 55.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.7
Over 22.5: 55% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.72
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 1 – 0 Terence Atmane (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 1–0 Terence Atmane
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Terence Atmane
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 20/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Dominik Palan Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 30/08 | Jaume Munar US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 18/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/08 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Karen Khachanov ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane?
Our model gives 71% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.