Tennis · ATP Almaty · 23/10, 08:30
Prediction: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Nikoloz Basilashvili · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nikoloz Basilashvili
9-1 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1–2
Adrian Mannarino
(3 last)
- 11 Sept1-2 15-16L
- 01 Nov0-2 6-12L
- 08 Feb2-0 14-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1618 · Adrian Mannarino 1524
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1618 vs 1524).
- Nikoloz Basilashvili dominates on serve: 10.9 aces and 41% break avg.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Nikoloz Basilashvili 1–2 Adrian Mannarino (3).
Statistics
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-10.6 | 12.3-12.7 |
| Aces | 10.9 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 80.8% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 41% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.9
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.83
H2H · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1 – 2 Adrian Mannarino (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1–2 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/24 Challenger Rennes | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 01/11/21 ATP Paris | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/02/17 ATP Sofia | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 60% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.