Tennis · Challenger Cali · 22/10, 19:30
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Matias Soto
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Matias Soto
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
4-6 (W-L)
Matias Soto
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valerio Aboian
1–1
Matias Soto
(2 last)
- 27 Mar1-2 13-16L
- 14 Dec2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1519 · Matias Soto 1476
| Valerio Aboian | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1519 vs 1476).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.7 | 10-11.3 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Valerio Aboian 1 – 1 Matias Soto (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 1–1 Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/25 Challenger Concepcion | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/12/23 ITF M15 Concepcion | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/10 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Matias Franco Descotte Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Julian Cundom Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Martin Landaluce Davis Cup |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 53% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.