Tennis · ATP Brussels · 22/10, 14:40
Prediction: David Goffin vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: David Goffin · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
David Goffin
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
David Goffin
3-7 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · David Goffin 1457 · Alex Michelsen 1544
| David Goffin | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1457 vs 1544).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 46.9% break avg.
- Alex Michelsen is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| David Goffin | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.9-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12.9 | 15.3-12.3 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 6.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 34.9% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.7
Over 19.5: 79% · 2.10
Under 19.5: 21% · 1.66
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
David Goffin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Remy Bertola ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Mark Lajal Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Toby Samuel French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/04 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 04/04 | Ignacio Buse ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in David Goffin vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 78% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.