Tennis · ATP Brussels · 23/10, 18:30
Prediction: Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Arthur Fils · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Fils
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Fils
7-3 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Fils 1555 · Alex Michelsen 1539
| Arthur Fils | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Fils dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 47.9% break avg.
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Arthur Fils | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.9-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-10.6 | 15.3-12.2 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1
Over 23.5: 57% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 43% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 02/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Luca Van Assche ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Martin Damm ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 60% to Arthur Fils, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.