Prediction: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
Team pages: Flavio Cobolli · Stan Wawrinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Flavio Cobolli
Stan Wawrinka
Estimated games
27.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Flavio Cobolli
2-8 (W-L)
Stan Wawrinka
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Flavio Cobolli
2–0
Stan Wawrinka
(2 last)
- 04 Jan2-1 19-17W
- 07 Oct2-1 19-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flavio Cobolli 1489 · Stan Wawrinka 1448
| Flavio Cobolli | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flavio Cobolli (rating 1489 vs 1448).
- Flavio Cobolli is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Flavio Cobolli 2–0 Stan Wawrinka (2).
Statistics
| Flavio Cobolli | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.7 | 0.8-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-16.7 | 13.8-16.3 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 20.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.9 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.4
Over 22.5: 83% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 17% · 1.90
H2H · Flavio Cobolli 2 – 0 Stan Wawrinka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flavio Cobolli 2–0 Stan Wawrinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 United Cup | 2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 07/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
| 22/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Alexander Blockx ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Stan Wawrinka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/09 | Gustavo Heide Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 31/08 | Matteo Berrettini US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-20 | L |
| 21/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka?
Our model gives 63% to Flavio Cobolli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.