Tennis · ATP Almaty · 22/10, 08:00
Prediction: Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Tomas Machac · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Machac
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Machac
4-6 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Machac
0–1
Karen Khachanov
(1 last)
- 19 Jan1-3 22-24L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Machac 1501 · Karen Khachanov 1547
| Tomas Machac | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karen Khachanov (rating 1501 vs 1547).
- Karen Khachanov dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 47% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tomas Machac 0–1 Karen Khachanov (1).
Statistics
| Tomas Machac | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.3 | 14.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 80.1% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.8
Over 22.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 45% · 1.90
H2H · Tomas Machac 0 – 1 Karen Khachanov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Machac 0–1 Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/24 Australian Open | 1-3 | 22-24 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Zangar Nurlanuly ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
Karen Khachanov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 07/09 | Learner Tien US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-23 | W |
| 05/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 63% to Karen Khachanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.