Tennis · Challenger Cali · 22/10, 17:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
4-6 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1519 · Nicolas Mejia 1469
| Miguel Tobon | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miguel Tobon (rating 1519 vs 1469).
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.5 | 10.9-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/10 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/09 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 10/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Koray Kirci Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Michael Zheng ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 55% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.