Tennis · M15 Ithaca · 21/10, 19:30
Prediction: Tomasz Berkieta vs Nicolas Arseneault
Team pages: Tomasz Berkieta · Nicolas Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomasz Berkieta
Nicolas Arseneault
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Tomasz Berkieta
5-5 (W-L)
Nicolas Arseneault
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomasz Berkieta 1485 · Nicolas Arseneault 1439
| Tomasz Berkieta | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomasz Berkieta (rating 1485 vs 1439).
- Note: Tomasz Berkieta makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Tomasz Berkieta | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 0% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.1 | 0.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-10.2 | 8.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 5 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 65% |
| Break % | 24.3% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomasz Berkieta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Roger Pascual Ferra M25 Austin |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Dominik Kellovsky Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Patrick Zahraj M25 Metzingen |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Iannis Miletich M25 Metzingen |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Oleksii Krutykh M15 Uslar |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Uslar |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Liam Gavrielides M15 Uslar |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Ethan Muza M15 Ithaca |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Eli Stephenson M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 2-7 | L |
| 14/10 | Duje Markovina M15 Lexington |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomasz Berkieta vs Nicolas Arseneault?
Our model gives 56% to Tomasz Berkieta, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.