Tennis · Challenger Cali · 22/10, 17:00
Prediction: Gustavo Heide vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Gustavo Heide · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Gustavo Heide
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Gustavo Heide
7-3 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gustavo Heide
1–0
Juan Pablo Varillas
(1 last)
- 24 Mar2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1556 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1531
| Gustavo Heide | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Gustavo Heide 1–0 Juan Pablo Varillas (1).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.2 | 12.3-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 22.6% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Gustavo Heide 1 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gustavo Heide 1–0 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/24 Challenger Asuncion | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/10 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/10 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/09 | Stan Wawrinka Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/09 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gustavo Heide vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 65% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.