Tennis · ATP Almaty · 21/10, 16:30
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Mikhail Kukushkin
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Mikhail Kukushkin
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
5–0
Mikhail Kukushkin
(5 last)
- 04 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 17 Apr2-0 13-8W
- 24 Feb2-0 14-11W
- 12 May2-1 18-16W
- 26 Feb2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1604 · Mikhail Kukushkin 1491
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1604 vs 1491).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 42.4% break avg.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 5–0 Mikhail Kukushkin (5).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-11.4 | 10.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 1 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.5% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.9
Over 19.5: 76% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 24% · 1.80
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 5 – 0 Mikhail Kukushkin (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 5–0 Mikhail Kukushkin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/22 ATP Nur-Sultan | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/04/19 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/02/19 ATP Marseille | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/05/18 ATP Rome Qual | 2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 26/02/18 ATP Dubai | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Mikhail Kukushkin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/06 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Mark Lajal Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 04/05 | Tianhui Zhang Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/04 | Coleman Wong Challenger Jiujiang · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Leandro Riedi Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/04 | Blake Ellis Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/04 | Jie Cui Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin?
Our model gives 79% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.