Tennis · ATP Almaty · 21/10, 08:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Sho Shimabukuro
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Sho Shimabukuro
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
8-2 (W-L)
Sho Shimabukuro
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1609 · Sho Shimabukuro 1431
| Daniil Medvedev | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1609 vs 1431).
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-9.1 | 10.9-13.6 |
| Aces | 11.6 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 80.5% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.3
Over 19.5: 72% · 1.66
Under 19.5: 28% · 2.10
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 07/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro?
Our model gives 82% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.