Tennis · M15 Ithaca · 20/10, 16:00
Prediction: Nicolas Arseneault vs Ethan Muza
Team pages: Nicolas Arseneault · Ethan Muza
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Arseneault
Ethan Muza
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Arseneault
3-7 (W-L)
Ethan Muza
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Arseneault 1433 · Ethan Muza 1507
| Nicolas Arseneault | Ethan Muza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ethan Muza (rating 1433 vs 1507).
- Note: Ethan Muza makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Arseneault | Ethan Muza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-11.1 | 10.5-9 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Eli Stephenson M15 Lexington |
0-2 | 2-7 | L |
| 14/10 | Duje Markovina M15 Lexington |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Ethan Muza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alejandro Moreno M25 Champaign |
1-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 16/06 | Victor Tosetto M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-10 | L |
| 31/12 | Aleksa Ciric UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/12 | Andrew Delgado UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/12 | Cole Henceroth UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/12 | Paxton Pritchard UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/10 | Piotr Siekanowicz UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/10 | Tej Bhagra UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/10 | Jan Kobierski UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Arseneault vs Ethan Muza?
Our model gives 65% to Nicolas Arseneault, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.