Tennis · Challenger Cali · 20/10, 19:20
Prediction: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Franco Ribero
Team pages: Carlos Maria Zarate · Franco Ribero
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Maria Zarate
Franco Ribero
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Maria Zarate
6-4 (W-L)
Franco Ribero
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlos Maria Zarate
1–0
Franco Ribero
(1 last)
- 17 Nov2-1 18-18W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Maria Zarate 1525 · Franco Ribero 1472
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Franco Ribero | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Maria Zarate (rating 1525 vs 1472).
- Carlos Maria Zarate is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Franco Ribero (1).
Statistics
| Carlos Maria Zarate | Franco Ribero | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.7-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9.8 | 9.1-10 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Carlos Maria Zarate 1 – 0 Franco Ribero (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Maria Zarate 1–0 Franco Ribero
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/25 Challenger Florianopolis | 2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Maria Zarate
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Felix Corwin M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Valentino Grippo M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Giovanni Branchetti M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Trelew |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Mar Del Plata |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Franco Ribero
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/10 | Jesse Flores Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/10 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Danial Spasov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Daniel Michalski M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Maria Zarate vs Franco Ribero?
Our model gives 66% to Carlos Maria Zarate, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.