Tennis · UTR Pro Lubbock · 20/10, 18:00
Prediction: Julian Messina vs Stijn Paardekooper
Team pages: Julian Messina · Stijn Paardekooper
Prediction summary
Winner
Julian Messina
Stijn Paardekooper
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Julian Messina
2-8 (W-L)
Stijn Paardekooper
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Julian Messina 1409 · Stijn Paardekooper 1539
| Julian Messina | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stijn Paardekooper (rating 1409 vs 1539).
- Stijn Paardekooper is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Julian Messina makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Julian Messina | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.6 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7-11.2 | 10.5-10.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 66% |
| Break % | 49% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Julian Messina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Ludovico Vaccari UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Tsz-Him Chan UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Marc Van Der Merwe UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Tommy Czaplinski UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Ritesh Patil UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Marshall Landry UTR Pro College Station · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Antreas Djakouris UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/09 | Felix Corwin UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Mario Garcia UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Stijn Paardekooper
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Dante Teramo UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Pablo Roche Alcaya UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Ben Stecker UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Thomas Nicholas Gadecki UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | Rodrigo Cruz UTR Pro Norman · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Dmitry Popko M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Ruslan Tiukaev M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Francesco Ferrari M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Julian Messina vs Stijn Paardekooper?
Our model gives 82% to Stijn Paardekooper, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.