Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 20/10, 08:30
Prediction: Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma
Team pages: Matilde Mariani · Maria Toma
Prediction summary
Winner
Matilde Mariani
Maria Toma
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matilde Mariani
5-5 (W-L)
Maria Toma
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matilde Mariani 1527 · Maria Toma 1444
| Matilde Mariani | Maria Toma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matilde Mariani (rating 1527 vs 1444).
- Matilde Mariani is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Matilde Mariani makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Maria Toma makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Matilde Mariani | Maria Toma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-9.3 | 9.9-11.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 5 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matilde Mariani
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Chiara Fornasieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Polina Berezina W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Mariia Lazarenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Yekaterina Dmitrichenko W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Lan Mi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Miroslava Medvedeva W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | Maria Oliver Sanchez W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Mariia Masiianskaia W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Aran Teixido Garcia W35 Trieste |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Camilla Gennaro W35 Trieste |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
Maria Toma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Noemi Maines W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Laura Boehner W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Agnese Gentili W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Aneta Laboutkova WTA Tolentino · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Iveta Dapkute W50 Evora |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 31/08 | Rebecca Munk Mortensen W50 Leiria |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/08 | Amelia Rajecki W50 Leiria |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/08 | Alena Kovackova W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Sevil Yuldasheva W50 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matilde Mariani vs Maria Toma?
Our model gives 50% to Matilde Mariani, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.