Tennis · W35 Santa Margherita · 21/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lucia Cortez Llorca vs Tena Lukas
Team pages: Lucia Cortez Llorca · Tena Lukas
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Tena Lukas
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lucia Cortez Llorca
6-4 (W-L)
Tena Lukas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lucia Cortez Llorca
0–1
Tena Lukas
(1 last)
- 01 Jul0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1533 · Tena Lukas 1487
| Lucia Cortez Llorca | Tena Lukas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Cortez Llorca (rating 1533 vs 1487).
- Head-to-head: Lucia Cortez Llorca 0–1 Tena Lukas (1).
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (7.1/match).
- Note: Tena Lukas makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Lucia Cortez Llorca | Tena Lukas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.8 | 7.5-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 7.1 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 57.4% |
| Break % | 61.7% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
H2H · Lucia Cortez Llorca 0 – 1 Tena Lukas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucia Cortez Llorca 0–1 Tena Lukas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/25 ITF W35 Stuttgart-Vaihingen | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucia Cortez Llorca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Ariana Geerlings WTA Mallorca · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA Mallorca · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann W35 Seville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Angelica Sara W35 Seville |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Meritxell Teixido Garcia W35 Seville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/09 | Kira Pavlova W50 Yecla |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Alicia Herrero Linana WTA Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 13/09 | Ariana Geerlings W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 12/09 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/09 | Daria Yesypchuk W35 Reus · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Tena Lukas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Gina Feistel WTA Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 11/10 | Ana Filipa Santos WTA Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/10 | Jessica Pieri W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alisa Oktiabreva W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-9 | L |
| 24/09 | Sara Cakarevic W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Verena Meliss W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-0 | W |
| 13/09 | Madison Sieg WTA Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Nastasja Schunk WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Aya Akan WTA Antalya · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/08 | Nastasja Schunk W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucia Cortez Llorca vs Tena Lukas?
Our model gives 57% to Lucia Cortez Llorca, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.