Tennis · ATP Brussels · 21/10, 11:30
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Francisco Cerundolo
Team pages: Martin Damm · Francisco Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Francisco Cerundolo
Estimated games
26.5Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
7-3 (W-L)
Francisco Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1493 · Francisco Cerundolo 1562
| Martin Damm | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francisco Cerundolo (rating 1493 vs 1562).
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 14.5 aces and 43.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.3 | 14.9-13.1 |
| Aces | 14.5 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 33.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.5 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +2
Over 24.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 36% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 17/10 | Buvaysar Gadamauri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 26/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 27/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Francisco Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Casper Ruud Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 19-22 | L |
| 20/09 | Mert Alkaya Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/09 | Yanki Erel Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 05/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Francisco Cerundolo?
Our model gives 63% to Francisco Cerundolo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.