Prediction: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Pierre-Hugues Herbert · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
4-6 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1504 · Sebastian Baez 1492
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Pierre-Hugues Herbert makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-13.1 | 11-12.2 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 32.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Maxim Mrva ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/10 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 22/08 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Sandro Kopp ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Thiago Monteiro ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 52% to Pierre-Hugues Herbert, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.