Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Kyrian Jacquet
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Kyrian Jacquet
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Kyrian Jacquet
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
2-8 (W-L)
Kyrian Jacquet
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1488 · Kyrian Jacquet 1571
| Matteo Berrettini | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kyrian Jacquet (rating 1488 vs 1571).
- Kyrian Jacquet is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Kyrian Jacquet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.7 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-16.2 | 12.3-10.2 |
| Aces | 12.6 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.6% | 79.6% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 29.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +2
Over 23.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 36% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
Kyrian Jacquet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 05/10 | Tianhui Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/10 | Holger Rune ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Kyrian Jacquet?
Our model gives 51% to Kyrian Jacquet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.