Tennis · M15 Heraklion · 21/10, 08:00
Prediction: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Aubriot
Team pages: Pavlos Tsitsipas · Alexandre Aubriot
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Alexandre Aubriot
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Pavlos Tsitsipas
2-8 (W-L)
Alexandre Aubriot
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1464 · Alexandre Aubriot 1519
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Alexandre Aubriot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexandre Aubriot (rating 1464 vs 1519).
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Alexandre Aubriot makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Pavlos Tsitsipas | Alexandre Aubriot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-14.2 | 10.9-8.7 |
| Aces | 3 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 70% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Nikita Belozertsev M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Nicholas Campbell M15 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 21/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 13/09 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Niccolo Catini M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Matyas Kozlovsky M15 Vienna |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Alexandre Aubriot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Filip Krolo M15 Sibenik |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Marko Topo M25 Zlatibor |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | George Lazarov M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Nico Hipfl M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Gilberto Ravasio M25 Zlatibor |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/09 | Adam Gabor Szoke M15 Budapest |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 05/09 | Dmitry Popko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Egor Shcherbakov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Aubriot?
Our model gives 64% to Alexandre Aubriot, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.