Tennis · ATP Almaty · 21/10, 08:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Team pages: Facundo Diaz Acosta · Nikoloz Basilashvili
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Diaz Acosta
5-5 (W-L)
Nikoloz Basilashvili
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1501 · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1618
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikoloz Basilashvili (rating 1501 vs 1618).
- Nikoloz Basilashvili is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.2 | 14-10.5 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.9% | 80.1% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.1
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/09 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/09 | Jaume Munar Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/09 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 05/10 | Andre Ilagan ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 28/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model gives 65% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.