Tennis · ATP Almaty · 21/10, 08:00
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
7-3 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adrian Mannarino
1–4
Andrey Rublev
(5 last)
- 04 Jul0-3 10-19L
- 09 Oct0-2 3-12L
- 07 Oct0-2 3-12L
- 21 Oct2-1 18-16W
- 20 Oct0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1514 · Andrey Rublev 1534
| Adrian Mannarino | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino 1–4 Andrey Rublev (5).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.5-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12 | 15.3-14 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.1% | 78.4% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 20.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3.1
Over 21.5: 71% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 29% · 2.00
H2H · Adrian Mannarino 1 – 4 Andrey Rublev (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adrian Mannarino 1–4 Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/25 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 09/10/23 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/10/22 ATP Astana | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/10/21 ATP Moscow | 2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 20/10/19 ATP Moscow | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/09 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 25/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juncheng Shang ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Dan Added Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 01/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-24 | L |
| 31/08 | Otto Virtanen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 31-22 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 67% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.