Tennis · Challenger Fort Worth · 19/10, 19:30
Prediction: Erik Arutiunian vs Aidan Mchugh
Team pages: Erik Arutiunian · Aidan Mchugh
Prediction summary
Winner
Erik Arutiunian
Aidan Mchugh
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Erik Arutiunian
7-3 (W-L)
Aidan Mchugh
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Erik Arutiunian
0–1
Aidan Mchugh
(1 last)
- 09 Nov0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Erik Arutiunian 1544 · Aidan Mchugh 1595
| Erik Arutiunian | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mchugh (rating 1544 vs 1595).
- Erik Arutiunian dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 60.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Erik Arutiunian 0–1 Aidan Mchugh (1).
Statistics
| Erik Arutiunian | Aidan Mchugh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.3 | 11.8-8 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 60.7% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
H2H · Erik Arutiunian 0 – 1 Aidan Mchugh (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Erik Arutiunian 0–1 Aidan Mchugh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 M25 East Lansing | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Erik Arutiunian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 22/09 | Trevor Svajda Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Andrew Fenty Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Braden Shick Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Nicholas Godsick Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Sanhui Shin Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Aidan Mchugh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Karl Poling M25 Austin |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Martin Riu M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/09 | Alexandre Reco M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/09 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 16/09 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/09 | Leonardo Rossi M25 Pozzuoli |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | David Eichenseher M25 Pozzuoli |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Erik Arutiunian vs Aidan Mchugh?
Our model gives 51% to Aidan Mchugh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.