Tennis · M15 Maceio · 19/10, 19:30
Prediction: Valentin Garay vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
Team pages: Valentin Garay · Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Garay
Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Garay
5-5 (W-L)
Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Garay 1431 · Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava 1499
| Valentin Garay | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava (rating 1431 vs 1499).
- Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Valentin Garay | Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.1-10.5 | 10.2-9.1 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.5% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 54% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Garay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Juan Sebastian Osorio M15 Belem |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Eric Von Marton Martins M15 Belem |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/09 | Joao Cunha Cunha M15 Leme |
1-2 | 8-8 | L |
| 31/08 | Thomas Enrique Menzel Piccioli M15 Trelew |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 11/05 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Juan Bautista Torres M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Mateo Carballo M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Dante Pagani M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 18/04 | Ezequiel Simonit UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Bruno Vieira Alves Malacarne Bruno M15 Maceio |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 13/10 | Tomas Dummer Macedo M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Curitiba |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Porto Velho |
0-2 | 6-9 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucca Pinto M15 Porto Velho |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Mateus Alves M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Ivan Dreycopp M25 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Gabriel Augusto Carvalho M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/05 | Gustavo Ribeiro de Almeida M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Garay vs Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava?
Our model gives 65% to Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.