Tennis · ATP Brussels · 19/10, 15:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
7-3 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1539 · Alex Michelsen 1529
| Andrea Guerrieri | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.8-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12 | 15.3-13.8 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 54.7% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +5
Over 20.5: 81% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 19% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Martin Damm ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 17/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 68% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.