Prediction: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Maxim Mrva
Team pages: Pierre-Hugues Herbert · Maxim Mrva
Prediction summary
Winner
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Maxim Mrva
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
4-6 (W-L)
Maxim Mrva
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1475 · Maxim Mrva 1535
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxim Mrva (rating 1475 vs 1535).
- Maxim Mrva is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Pierre-Hugues Herbert makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-13.5 | 12-11 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 64% |
| Break % | 31.1% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 51% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 23/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 22/08 | Kenta Miyoshi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Sandro Kopp ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Thiago Monteiro ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 22/06 | Paul Jubb Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/10 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Nikita Mashtakov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Federico Iannaccone Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/08 | Nerman Fatic Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Maxim Mrva?
Our model gives 51% to Pierre-Hugues Herbert, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.