Tennis · ATP Almaty · 20/10, 08:00
Prediction: Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Team pages: Mattia Bellucci · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Prediction summary
Winner
Mattia Bellucci
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mattia Bellucci
1–0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
(1 last)
- 09 May2-1 17-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mattia Bellucci 1600 · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1449
| Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1600 vs 1449).
- Mattia Bellucci dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 42.1% break avg.
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mattia Bellucci 1–0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1).
Statistics
| Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-9.9 | 12.5-13.3 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.8
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 44% · 2.00
H2H · Mattia Bellucci 1 – 0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattia Bellucci 1–0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mattia Bellucci
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 04/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Yanki Erel Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 02/09 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 30/08 | Vit Kopriva US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?
Our model gives 59% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.