Tennis · ATP Almaty · 20/10, 08:30
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Roman Safiullin
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Roman Safiullin
Estimated games
21.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
3-7 (W-L)
Roman Safiullin
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1407 · Roman Safiullin 1594
| Sho Shimabukuro | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 75% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roman Safiullin (rating 1407 vs 1594).
- Roman Safiullin dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 53.5% break avg.
- Roman Safiullin is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Roman Safiullin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 13% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.5 | 12.2-8.7 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1
Over 20.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 43% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/09 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Anton Shepp Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | James Watt Davis Cup |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Roman Safiullin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/10 | Ilya Ivashka ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/10 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin?
Our model gives 79% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.